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Jobs, Inflation Data This Week as Markets Key in on September Fed Meeting_我的网站

十二生肖

一 |     

按照7月6日职业联赛工作会议暨中超俱乐部老总峰会上公布的竞赛方案,2022赛季中超联赛拟从第11轮开始恢复主客场赛制。    
Last week ended with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterating the central bank’s commitment to keeping interest rates high enough to choke off economic activity while bringing inflation back down to its 2% annual target.
“It is the Fed's job to bring inflation down to our 2 percent goal, and we will do so,” Powell said during his speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday. “We have tightened policy significantly over the past year. Although inflation has moved down from its peak – a welcome development – it remains too high. We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.”
That will be done while also keeping a close eye on incoming economic data, Powell added.
Well, there will be no shortage of new data this week from a consumer confidence reading for August, an update on second quarter gross domestic product, home prices for June and pending home sale for July, along with a bevy of reports on the labor market. And no doubt the stock and bond markets will continue to analyze Powell’s comments and price in any anticipated actions by the Fed.
“We believe the Fed will remain vigilant and data dependent in determining whether rates sustained at current levels for a longer period of time or further rate rises will be needed,” Vanguard senior economist Andrew Patterson said on Friday. “Our baseline is for the latter, another 1-3 hikes are possible over the next several months and into next year before leaving them on hold for some time and only cutting when broader macro conditions weaken, resulting in a shallow recession.”
One piece of the puzzle for Powell will be the health of the labor market. On Tuesday, the Labor Department will release the number of job openings as of the end of July. Analysts are forecasting the number at 9.45 million following June’s 9.6 million.
On Wednesday, private payroll firm ADP will release its monthly employment survey for August with 194,000 jobs expected following July’s supercharged 324,000 number.
But Friday brings the big data highlight of the week with the government’s report on nonfarm payrolls for August. Economists foresee another slip to 168,000 from 187,000.
Sandwiched in between are personal income and spending numbers for July as well as that month’s personal consumption price expenditures index. The inflation measure, while not as commonly known as the consumer price index, is one closely followed by the Fed. One reason that inflation has not come down closer to the Fed’s 2% annual target is that consumers continue to spend, buoyed by wage gains.
“Recession keeps getting pushed back and the staying power of the consumer is a key reason why,” said Sam Bullard, managing director and senior economist at Wells Fargo’s corporate and investment banking group. “Even as credit becomes harder to access for consumers and pandemic era savings get closer to running out, consumers continue to spend. June marked the largest monthly gain in real consumption since January, which suggests that PCE is set to start the third quarter on solid ground.”
The Fed’s monetary policy committee will meet again on Sept. 20. Although expectations have been for no change in the level of interest rates after July’s quarter-point increase, the odds of a hike at the next scheduled meeting in November are starting to creep up.
CME Group’s futures trading price the odds of a rate hike at the Fed’s November meeting at roughly 57%, up from 36% prior to Powell’s Jackson Hole comments.

二 | 就在各俱乐部全力推进各自主场申办工作的同时,赛事主办方也在加紧落实“第三方赛地”的遴选工作。从目前情况看,作为联赛首阶段三个赛区之一的海口赛区已成为“第三方赛地”的主要候选地。在7月6日的会议上,中足联筹备组通报各俱乐部,本赛季中超联赛余下24轮赛事,也就是第11轮至第34轮赛事计划将于8月5日开始,至12月中旬落幕,比赛拟恢复主客场赛制。

三 | 为此,赛事主办方已通过各俱乐部向其属地体育管理部门及政府相关其他部门发去了主场申办工作意见征集函,并希望各俱乐部最晚于7月20日将具体意见反馈回来。

中超联赛恢复主客场赛制,实为俱乐部、球迷、赞助商等各方众望所归。

四 | 不过受疫情等客观因素影响,不同俱乐部在落实主场申办的工作过程中遇到的问题与困难不同。部分俱乐部可能短期内或者说8月5日前还无法落实“主场作战”。因此为确保联赛正常运行,赛事主办方同意,那些暂时无法在主场比赛的球队可以申请备用主场,如还无法如愿,那么既可以放弃主场比赛赴对手主场比赛,也可以在主办方提供的“第三方赛地”参加比赛。“第三方比赛地”安排在哪里?这同样需要赛事主办方妥善选择。

五 | 据悉,在此之前,赛事主办方曾考虑由此前承办中超首阶段赛事的大连赛区、海口赛区作为“第三方赛地”承接中超联赛后面阶段部分球队相关轮次赛事。

六 | 这是因为这两个赛区此前防疫工作比较得力,且交通、场地条件、接待能力均符合中超比赛要求。而在赛制确认调整前,两赛区原本也计划携手梅州赛区共同承接中超联赛余下三个阶段赛会制比赛。不过,无论是大连赛区,还是梅州赛区,其属地分别拥有一支中超球队。如果将“第三方赛地”安排在两赛区之一,且比赛涉及两地球队,那么到这里参加“主场”比赛的球队无异于平添了客场比赛场次。

七 | 近日,成都蓉城俱乐部常务副总经理姚夏公开表示,欢迎其他球队到成都来打中超比赛。尽管成都赛区的场地条件不俗,且已接受过了赛事主办方工作组的考察,但从“主客场因素有别”角度出发,其他球队并不一定情愿来成都打“主场”比赛。除维护竞争公平外,防疫等因素亦是赛事主办方遴选“第三方赛地”的重要参考依据。比如,目前国内各地执行的防疫政策存在一定差异,赛地的选择有必要满足各队城际间往来便利性的需要。这也是海口赛区目前成为重要候选地的原因所在。文/本报记者 肖赧 统筹/杜锐 赛况 国安遭逆转 1比2不敌深圳 11日晚,北京国安在中超第10轮比赛中迎战实力不俗的深圳队,经过90分钟的对攻战,国安最终1比2不敌深圳队,未能以一场胜利结束第一阶段的争夺。为双方进球的分别是国安这边的王刚以及深圳的郜林和元敏诚。本场比赛最大的看点就是国安的前锋王子铭在获得首发机会之后,能否扛起球队的进攻大旗。比赛开始之后,双方没有进行任何的试探,直接开始对攻,不过无论是国安小将乃比江似传似射的打门还是裴帅的头球,都没有真正威胁到对手的大门。15分钟之后,深圳队逐渐拿到了场上的主动权,三位前场老将王永珀、郜林和孙可给国安的后防线制造了不小的威胁。深圳队的姜志鹏差点利用一次远射敲开国安的大门,好在侯森将皮球压在了自己的身下,力保大门不失。比赛第28分钟,国安利用一次反击机会,由王刚在大禁区外打进一脚精彩的世界波,这也是这位前国脚为国安打进的首个进球。上半场比赛结束,国安1比0领先对手。易边再战之后,两队依然是互有攻守、各不相让,尤其是此役改踢右边前卫的国安外援姜祥佑,他曾经人球分过深圳队后防线球员后形成一次不错的突破机会,不过他的远射被对手门将董春雨牢牢抱住。

八 | 在王子铭浪费了一次绝佳的机会之后,国安遭受到了惩罚,侯森的扑球失误给了对手前锋郜林补射的机会,这位35岁老将自然不会放过这样的良机,1比1,国安和深圳队再次回到同一起跑线上。在比赛结束前,深圳队后卫元敏诚利用一次角球机会破门得分,2比1,李章洙的队伍完成了逆转,并将这个比分保持到了终场结束。最终国安不敌对手,8轮不败就此被终结,未能以一场胜利结束第一阶段的争夺。文/本报记者 张昆龙

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Published on:01:36:43