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金价也有周期：长涨短调_我的网站

一 |     2025年10月17日，伦敦现货黄金触及4380美元/盎司的历史高点后，出现震荡调整。最终，当日报收4251美元/盎司，下跌1.73%，但仍处于历史高位水平。    One person died at the Burning Man festival this weekend as a severe bout of rain caused flooding in the remote Nevada desert where the event was being held, authorities said. This comes as tens of thousands of attendees remained stranded Sunday. The Pershing County Sheriff's Office confirmed it is investigating the death in a news release issued Saturday, and said the family has been notified both of the death and the active probe. A spokesperson for the sheriff's office told CBS News on Sunday that the death occurred during the extreme rain that swept through parts of northwestern Nevada on Friday and Saturday, but not because of it. The earlier news release noted that the office "is currently investigating a death which occurred during this rain event." Echoing the release, the spokesperson declined to share additional information about the death or circumstances surrounding it because the sheriff's investigation was still ongoing.

             

The White House said Sunday that President Biden had been briefed on the flooding and "administration officials are monitoring the situation and are in touch with state and local officials."      Officials urged Burning Man attendees to shelter in place on Saturday and Sunday after storms soaked the Black Rock Desert, a dried lake bed now composed of alkali flats that sits in a remote and arid section of northwestern Nevada, about 150 miles from Reno. The Burning Man entrance was shut down Saturday and would remain closed for the remainder of the event, Washoe County Sheriff's Office tweeted. Anyone attempting to travel to the area would be turned around. The Pershing County Sheriff's Office noted Saturday that festival operations were being "halted or significantly delayed...due to unusual weather conditions on the playa."                 Roads in and out of the festival remained closed Sunday evening, and festival organizers urged attendees to conserve food, water and fuel. Cell phone equipment was also brought in to help those stuck in flooded campsites.  

             

About 73,000 people were stranded at Burning Man when the head count was tallied Saturday, the Pershing County Sheriff's Office spokesperson told CBS News. Some attendees were reportedly seen trudging through the muddy desert in efforts to leave the festival on foot, according to the Associated Press.The organizers of Burning Man said in a statement Saturday night that people who decide to walk out of the desert would be provided bus transportation to Reno from Gerlach, which is about 15 miles from the site of Black Rock City. "Burning Man is a community of people who are prepared to support one another. We have come here knowing this is a place where we bring everything we need to survive. It is because of this that we are all well-prepared for a weather event like this," the statement read.                      "We have done table-top drills for events like this. We are engaged full-time on all aspects of safety and looking ahead to our Exodus as our next priority," the statement continued. Exodus is how Burning Man refers to the end of the festival, when all attendees leave the desert."The Burning Man organization's advice is for participants to delay their departures to avoid getting stuck in the mud, but people are free to leave should they choose to do so," organizers said. On the Burning Man website, organizers said they were hoping to reopen roads by 9 a.m. local time Monday. "It was really, really wet and really, really slick," stranded attendee Justin Schuman told CBS News of the muddy conditions in a video interview Sunday from his campsite. "But it's also very alkaline. So you do have to be careful for no prolonged exposure of your skin to the mud because, apparently it can actually start to really, gently burn your skin."Schuman said he and his friends had enough supplies to make it through a few more days. "We are not allowed out of the playa, the gates are locked, we have enough tuna for a week," said Christine Lee, a circus performer, on social media.The area serves as the annual locale for Burning Man, a weeklong event that typically draws tens of thousands of people "to create Black Rock City, a temporary metropolis dedicated to community, art, self-expression, and self-reliance," according to a passage in the "about" section on the festival's website. Event organizers require attendees "to bring all you need to survive" to the desert, including food, water and shelter, which can be shared.                      The Reno Gazette Journal reported Saturday that organizers started rationing ice sales and that all vehicle traffic at the sprawling festival grounds had been stopped, leaving portable toilets unable to be serviced.  

             

The Pershing County Sheriff's Office was coordinating with several agencies, including the Bureau of Land Management and Burning Man Org, to assist attendees sheltering in place at the event site. The sheriff's office spokesperson told CBS News on Sunday that "they are all working together to try to get everybody out of there safely," at least in part using vehicles with four-wheel drive. It was unclear whether other transportation methods were being used too."There had been mild to heavy rain for several hours, causing conditions that made it virtually impossible for motorized vehicles to traverse the playa," the sheriff's office said in Saturday's news release, adding that it supports Burning Man's decision to order attendees to shelter in place and noting, "There is more rain forecast for the next few days which could cause further delays and disruptions for participants attempting to leave the Festival as well as other operations within the Festival." In addition to small groups of people who were able to walk off the event site and were "awaiting transport" arranged by Burning Man at the time the release was issued, the office said "some vehicles have been able to drive off the playa, however, those vehicles have caused damage to the playa surface, and it is not recommended at this time."                                 

In:    
• Burning Man
    
• Nevada
    

。                   在这一波黄金暴涨行情中，有人选择了高位变现，有人追高入市。                   作为穿越经济周期的传统避险资产，黄金价格的每一轮剧烈波动都与全球经济格局、地缘政治风险、货币政策走向等核心变量深度绑定。当前，金价的凌厉涨势背后，是避险资金加速涌入、资产配置逻辑重塑与市场情绪共振的多重作用。                   10月16日，大宗商品研究、咨询和投资管理研究机构CPM Group的中国区总经理曲硕就金价历史运行规律、当前核心驱动力量、产业端供需变化及普通投资者应对策略等问题，接受了经济观察报记者的专访。                   【对话】                    经济观察报：从历史数据看，国际金价走势有哪些规律？近年来，金价的具体波动情况如何？是否存在上涨或回调周期？                    曲硕：长期来看，国际金价整体呈现“长涨短调”趋势，每次大幅上涨后常伴随显著回调。

二 | 国际金价的历史周期规律清晰，上涨周期通常为3至5年，以“缓慢爬坡”的形态抬升，回调周期通常为1至2年，下跌速度快、幅度大。

三 |                    1978年至2019年，国际金价呈现多轮“涨——调——震”周期。1978年，国际金价达192美元/盎司，两年内上涨突破700美元/盎司，而后回落至300美元/盎司—400美元/盎司，并稳定至2002年；2008年，国际金价冲击1000美元/盎司未果，次贷危机后大涨至2011年的1800美元/盎司，随后回落至2016年的近1000美元/盎司，震荡至2019年。

四 |                    2019年，国际金价开启新一轮上涨，疫情后突破2000美元/盎司；2021年至2023年，国际金价进入横向波动期，其中2022年受美联储加息预期影响出现回调；2024年，国际金价有效突破2000美元/盎司，当年3月因地缘风险增加，年内一度上涨突破2800美元/盎司，年均价2600美元/盎司；2025年，国际金价屡创新高，4月达3500美元/盎司，10月7日突破4000美元/盎司。                   经济观察报：回调周期的影响因素有哪些？                    曲硕：黄金回调多由市场恐慌性抛盘引发，也容易受到其他市场波动的影响。当市场出现挤兑事件时，恐慌情绪会快速蔓延，投资者会集中抛售各类资产，黄金往往会被连带抛售。如2020年金价先跌至近1000美元/盎司，后逐步回升。                   经济观察报：当前推动金价上涨的关键力量是什么？是否有数据支撑？                    曲硕：当前，影响金价的因素里，避险需求是核心因素，其次是通胀、货币等次要因素。此外，还有制造业需求带来的负面影响，美联储降息的影响也比较小。                   从避险需求来看，主要有三方面推动：一方面是美国总统特朗普的政策预期，其首个任期上台时黄金就上涨过一波；二是全球抛售美国国债的资金转向黄金，这些钱直接回流本国不容易，黄金就成了资金转移的载体，自然会推高黄金需求和价格；三是投资需求激增，大量原来的数字货币投资者转向黄金市场。

五 | 这类投资者从行为金融学角度看，属于“追涨杀跌”的跟风投资者，并非基于投资组合配置需求入场，也直接推动了黄金投资需求的增长。

六 | 与之前相比，2023年，黄金上涨逻辑并不明显，而2024年至2025年，资金避险驱动趋势更清晰，且投资者结构中“追涨型”占比显著提升。                   通胀方面对金价的影响较弱，美国的通胀率从此前的6%降至现在的3.1%—3.2%，投资者之前买黄金抗通胀的需求基本没有了，对金价拉动作用也没有了。货币方面，今年美元指数下跌逾9%，虽然美元指数下跌理论上利好黄金，但实际影响并不明显，没有成为金价上涨的主要推动力量。美联储降息的影响也相对有限，当前美国联邦基金利率区间为4.00%—4.25%，仍处于相对高位，黄金作为零息资产的吸引力提升有限。                   还有负面影响来自制造业需求，珠宝、电子这些行业本来用黄金多，但现在金价太高，企业都在尽量少用黄金，控制成本，工业端需求降了，对金价就不利。                   经济观察报：黄金制造业需求的整体态势如何？2024年该需求大幅下降的原因、具体数据及2025年需求预期分别是什么？同时，近3年金价上涨但勘探支出未大幅增加反而回落的原因又是什么？                    曲硕：从黄金制造业需求来看，整体态势呈现“前期稳定、2024年大幅下降、2025年预期放缓”的特征。此前一段时间，黄金制造业需求大体保持稳定，2024年受多重因素影响出现显著下滑，较2023年同期下降8.5%，降至8550万盎司，核心原因是当年金价大幅上涨削弱了市场消费与生产意愿，其中黄金珠宝业受冲击最大。2025年若金价无明显下滑，预计黄金制造业需求将进一步放缓至8450万盎司，比2024年下降约1.2%。                   从黄金勘探上看，2024年整体勘探支出呈下降趋势，金矿勘探支出也随之再次回落。自2012年勘探支出达到顶峰后，随后几年间持续回落，直至金价开启上涨通道后才逐渐回升。                   但近3年金价不断上涨，勘探支出却未随之增加反而回落，核心原因有两方面：一是2022年受通胀影响美联储宣布加息后，矿商融资成本显著提升，矿商担忧以高利率融入资金开展开采后，后续金价可能下跌导致收益难以覆盖成本，因此对勘探支出持谨慎态度；二是部分矿产资源丰富地区的高运营成本加剧了这一情况，例如南非面临电力短缺、电费高昂及劳动力成本超预期的问题，当地不少金矿多年未开采；澳大利亚也存在类似困境，部分矿山虽已完成十几年的勘探工作，却因成本过高未进入生产阶段。                   经济观察报：国际金价一度触及4300美元/盎司的高点，已超多家机构预测的水平，你如何看待后市？                    曲硕：我们预测，短期看，即2025年内，国际金价大概率在10月见顶，后逐步回落，预计最终回落至3800美元/盎司—4000美元/盎司区间。

七 | 需要注意的是，若出现极端情况，如特朗普推出激进政策，国际金价可能冲击4500美元/盎司—5000美元/盎司，但这种情况发生概率较低。                   长期看，黄金具备长期投资价值，从历史数据看，20世纪70年代，1盎司黄金的价格约为192美元，当前已大幅上涨，若从那时持有至今，涨幅达21倍。

八 | 建议投资者待金价回调后分批配置，长期持有可实现资产保值，对抗通胀与地缘风险。                   此外，黄金市场存在“季节性规律”，正常情况下，年初金价会上涨，4—6月进入淡季，7—10月再次上涨，后3个月下降。2024年起，该规律逐步失效，但2025年后三个月大概率回归季节性走势，出现价格回落。                   经济观察报：普通投资者在当前节点是否适合买入黄金？不同投资品种该如何选择？                    曲硕：短期内不建议买入黄金，核心原因是“风险与回报可能不成正比”，即当前国际金价虽然可能再冲高，但是回调风险更高，若市场出现恐慌，可能直接回调500美元/盎司—600美元/盎司，用小幅度收益搏高幅度风险，性价比过低。

九 |                    至于不同投资品种的选择方面，实物黄金上，优先选择金条，安全性更高，避免受机构信用风险影响；黄金ETF（交易型开放式指数基金）上，需谨慎选择发行机构，美国市场曾出现地区银行关闭导致ETF爆雷的情况；黄金期货上，可正常操作，但需做好风险测算，不能一味追涨，可利用“买多买空”机制平衡风险。                   黄金在个人资产配置中占比10%—25%可能比较合适，该比例既能保障资产安全性，又能避免过度依赖黄金导致收益单一。

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Published on:12:29:02